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How Ship-To Volumes Are Derived From the Consumption Forecast

How ship-to volumes are derived from the consumption forecast, and how to remove an incorrect SKU/region.

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Written by Support

The volume shown in a ship-to's forecast is automatically pulled from that ship-to's consumption (depletion) forecast — it is not entered or edited directly on the ship-to screen itself.

Why do distributors like UNFI and KeHE appear in both the Consumption and Ship-To forecasts? Is the volume counted twice?

No. In Confido's Sales Forecasting module, the Consumption (or Depletions) forecast and the Ship-To forecast are two views of the same volume on different timing. They are not two separate sources of demand. This applies to any Confido user viewing the Sales Forecast.

  • Retailers with POS (point-of-sale) data: Confido builds the Consumption forecast from POS data, then shifts it earlier by your buy-in delay to create the Ship-To forecast for the distributor that ships to that retailer.

  • Retailers without POS data: Confido forecasts from the distributor's depletion data instead, shifted earlier by the same buy-in delay.

Each retailer is forecast from either POS data or depletion data, never both, so no retailer's volume is counted twice in the Ship-To forecast.

Worked example: With a 4-week buy-in delay, a product forecast at 759 units in the Consumption forecast for the week of 12/13 appears as 759 units in the Ship-To forecast for the week of 11/15, 4 weeks earlier.

How do I change the buy-in delay between the Consumption and Ship-To forecasts?

The buy-in delay is the time between shipping product to the distributor and the consumer buying it at the shelf. To change the buy-in delay:

  1. Go to Settings → Forecast Settings.

  2. Update the buy-in delay.

After the change, the Ship-To forecast shifts to the new timing relative to the Consumption and Depletions forecasts. If the Ship-To timing doesn't change, check whether the customer has Direct Order Forecasting enabled (see the exception below), because those customers don't pull from the Consumption forecast.

Which forecast should I use as my complete sales forecast for demand planning?

Use the Ship-To forecast. The Ship-To forecast is the complete, non-duplicated view of expected volume on shipment timing. Demand planning compares forecast to shipment history, so the Ship-To forecast is the like-for-like view. Use the Consumption forecast to understand sell-through and trends at the shelf, but don't reconcile it against shipment actuals, because the Consumption forecast is on a different time basis.

Removing a SKU or Region From a Ship-To

If a ship-to is pulling in volume that shouldn't be there (for example, a planning group configured to route through the wrong distributor, surfacing units for a region you don't actually sell into), don't edit the ship-to directly — go to the consumption forecast for that customer instead and delete the row for the affected product/region.

  1. Navigate to the consumption forecast for the relevant customer

  2. Locate the row for the product/region you want removed

  3. Delete the row

This will zero out the forecast columns going forward in the ship-to. Any historical actuals will remain visible in that row (since real sales occurred), but the forward-looking forecast will reflect the removal.

Exception: Customers With "Direct Order Forecasting" Enabled

The automatic consumption-to-ship-to flow described above applies to most customers, but not all. In Forecast Settings, a customer can instead be flagged as "Direct order forecasting." For these customers, the ship-to forecast is entered directly as a total shipment value and does NOT pull from the consumption forecast at all. If two similar customers behave differently, check whether "Direct order forecasting" is enabled for one of them in Forecast Settings.

Switching a Customer From Direct Order to Consumption Forecasting

If you move a customer from Direct Order Forecasting to consumption-based forecasting in Forecast Settings, the Ship-to forecast may not immediately reflect the change. Previous direct order forecast values can remain "sticky" and continue to appear even after the setting is disabled, because the prior direct order forecast is still referenced by the system.

If this happens — the Ship-to still shows as a direct order rather than pulling from consumption — contact [email protected]. The Confido team will soft-delete the residual direct order forecast, after which the consumption forecast will flow through correctly to the Ship-to view.

Master data changes like switching a customer's forecast method are sensitive. Before making this type of change, export any forecast data you need to retain — reversing it may require engineering assistance.

Can I Manually Override the Ship-To Forecast?

Not within the Sales Forecast module. For consumption-based Planning Groups, the Ship-to tab is read-only. If you need to manually adjust a shipment number, that capability exists in the Demand Planning Module, not Sales Forecast (see "7. Adjustments, Overrides, and Collaboration").

Why a Ship-To Might Show No Volume At All

If a ship-to isn't showing any volume, check these two prerequisites before assuming something is broken:

  1. Actualized data must exist. The Ship-to view is built from ERP shipment actuals. If no invoices have synced yet for this customer (check the "ERP Invoice Coverage" screen), there is nothing for the forecast to pull from.

  2. The customer must be assigned as the RTM on a Planning Group. Ship-to volume is only derived for customers that are set up as the RTM (distributor) on at least one Planning Group. A new "solo" ship-to customer with no Planning Group relationship will not show any volume, even once invoices start flowing.

Why Don’t Actuals Appear at the SKU Level?

For retailers that do not provide base and incremental units, such as Whole Foods, you must select the "derive incremental units" option during data upload. Without this setting, imported actuals may display as zeros at the SKU level. For syndicated sources that include base and incremental units, leave "derive incremental units" unselected to use the provided breakdown.

Why Do Negative Adjustments Appear?

Ship-to forecasts are tied to shipment actuals. To reconcile with these actuals, underlying demand drivers (e.g., consumption) may require adjustments. Negative adjustments can appear when actuals, including credits or returns, are lower than previously forecasted.

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