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How to Forecast DTC and E-commerce Sales (Shopify, Amazon) in Confido

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Written by Support

Use this article to get direct-to-consumer (DTC) and e-commerce sales, such as Shopify and Amazon, into Confido's Sales Forecast. It covers setting up each channel the right way, making sure its actuals flow in from your ERP, and fixing e-commerce customers that show no actuals.

Who this article is for

This article is for Confido users who set up the Sales Forecast and have access to Settings → Forecast Settings and Settings → Directory. It is also for the finance or ERP (enterprise resource planning system, such as NetSuite) owner who records DTC and e-commerce sales.

Why don't my DTC or e-commerce customers show any actuals in Confido?

Confido's Sales Forecast pulls Ship-to actuals only from invoice transactions in your ERP. Confido does not pull cash sales or other non-invoice transaction types. Many brands record Shopify, Amazon or TikTok Shop sales as cash sales in NetSuite because the customer pays by card at checkout. When DTC and e-commerce sales are recorded as cash sales, those customers show no actuals in Confido's Sales Forecast. The sales also don't appear as unmapped lines on the ERP Invoice Coverage screen, because Confido never pulled them.

To check whether cash sales are the cause:

  1. Open the ERP Invoice Coverage screen and look for the e-commerce customer's sales.

  2. If the sales appear as neither mapped nor unmapped invoices, find the same sales in your ERP and check their transaction type.

  3. If the transactions are cash sales rather than invoices, follow the steps in the next section.

How do I get DTC and e-commerce sales into Confido's actuals?

To make DTC and e-commerce sales flow into Confido's Sales Forecast actuals:

  1. Going forward, record DTC and e-commerce sales (for example, Shopify, Amazon or TikTok Shop sales) in your ERP as invoices, not cash sales.

  2. Confirm the e-commerce customer is mapped in Settings → Directory and the invoiced products are linked, so Confido can show the invoice lines.

  3. For past periods already recorded as cash sales, export the historical cash sales from your ERP as a flat file with SKU, quantity, customer and dollar amount. Send the file to your Confido team, who will review it and upload it as actuals.

Once the invoices sync, the e-commerce customer's actuals appear in the Ship-to view of the Sales Forecast. If a customer still shows no actuals after its invoices sync, check the ERP Invoice Coverage screen for unmapped lines for that customer, then contact your Confido team.

Should Amazon be its own Planning Group in Confido?

Yes, if Amazon sell-through (consumption) data is connected to Confido. Amazon can be set up as its own Planning Group, linked to your Amazon customer and forecast from consumption data with a store count of 1. Confido then builds the Amazon forecast the same way as your other consumption Planning Groups, and Amazon invoices in your ERP provide the Ship-to actuals.

Should Shopify or my own website be a Planning Group in Confido?

No. Don't create a Planning Group for Shopify or other DTC website sales. Shopify sell-through data can't flow into Confido as consumption data the way Amazon data can, so a Shopify Planning Group would have no consumption data to forecast from. Set your Shopify or DTC customer to Direct Order Forecasting instead:

  1. Confirm the DTC customer is mapped in Settings → Directory.

  2. Go to Settings → Forecast Settings and scroll down to the Direct Order Forecasting section.

  3. Add the DTC customer to the Direct Order Forecasting list and save.

After you save, Confido forecasts the DTC customer from its own invoiced order history, as a total number of units rather than from store counts and baseline velocity. For more on Direct Order Forecasting, see the Confido Forecast Methodology Guide.

How do I forecast small retailers and distributors that don't have their own Planning Group?

Long-tail customers that don't justify their own Planning Group, such as an off-price retailer like TJ Maxx or a small distributor, can also be forecast as Direct Order Forecasting customers in Confido. Map the customer in Settings → Directory so its invoice actuals come in, then add it to the Direct Order Forecasting list in Settings → Forecast Settings. If the smaller accounts are served by a distributor that sends depletion data, you can forecast them together in an "All Other" depletion Planning Group instead.

Summary: how to set up each DTC and e-commerce channel

The following list summarizes how to set up each type of DTC and e-commerce sales channel in Confido's Sales Forecast:

  • Amazon, with sell-through data connected: its own consumption Planning Group, with a store count of 1.

  • Shopify or your own website: a Direct Order Forecasting customer, with no Planning Group.

  • Long-tail retailers and small distributors: a Direct Order Forecasting customer, or an "All Other" depletion Planning Group.

For every channel, the sales must be recorded as invoices in your ERP for Confido to pull actuals.

Limitations

  • Affected: DTC and e-commerce sales recorded in your ERP as cash sales or any other non-invoice transaction type. Limitation: Confido doesn't pull these transactions as actuals. Workaround: record these sales as invoices going forward, and send historical cash sales to your Confido team as a flat file for upload.

  • Affected: Shopify and other DTC website sales. Limitation: Shopify sell-through data can't be used as consumption data in Confido. Workaround: forecast the DTC customer with Direct Order Forecasting.

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